"I think it [Blu-ray] has 5 years left, I certainly wouldn’t give it 10"
Incidentally, 10 years is exactly the time span set by Sony for its PlayStation 3 console, which, also incidentally, has Blu-ray as one of its top features.
Although such predictions are gloomy for Sony, they do make sense up to a certain point. It’s unlikely that a rival format won’t step up and challenge Blu-ray’s supremacy in the future. Sony’s developed format will undoubtedly step down from its current position and be replaced, just as it did with the DVD.
Still, do keep in mind that the DVD business is still going good at this time and chances are that it will continue to do so for a quite a while.